The proposed policies of former President Donald Trump and his allies signal a substantial shift toward restrictive immigration, heightened visa scrutiny, and protectionist measures. Such policies risk making the U.S. a less appealing destination for international students—a critical demographic that provides financial stability to many U.S. universities and bolsters the country's research and innovation output.
Drawing on both empirical evidence from Trump’s first term and recent policy proposals, this article explores the multi-layered impacts of these policies on different types of higher education institutions.
- Immediate Impacts: Less selective regional colleges, which rely heavily on tuition from international students, are at the highest risk. Institutions with high acceptance rates and high international enrollment, such as Brigham Young University–Hawaii and Savannah College of Art and Design, face potential budget shortfalls, enrollment declines, and the necessity to reduce programs if international students are deterred.
- Quality and Innovation Challenges for Selective Institutions: Highly selective universities like Harvard and MIT may see a decline in the caliber of international graduate applicants, especially from non-white or underrepresented backgrounds, as top-tier talent increasingly opts for friendlier, competitive alternatives abroad.
- Broader Economic and Educational Effects: A reduction in international student flows threatens to weaken the U.S. talent pipeline, compromise research output, and erode the global influence of American higher education. Competing countries with more inclusive policies are likely to benefit from a “brain drain,” capturing skilled international graduates who would otherwise contribute to the U.S. economy.
By examining these immediate, second-order, and long-term effects, this article provides a nuanced analysis of the evolving landscape in U.S. higher education and presents strategic recommendations for at-risk institutions.
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