This article is about switching. How not to miss the holes in your own leaky bucket, and how to identify the holes in your competitors’ leaky buckets.
The messy business we’re discussing today forces you to ask blunt questions. Who’s leaving their current vendor? Why now? Who’s involved in the real decision? And how do we reach them before the RFP hits the street?
The truth is, switching decisions don’t follow a clean timeline. They simmer. They metastasize. Most of the time, when you see an open bid it’s already over. Political consensus has formed. Pilots have run. Stakeholders have aligned behind a favorite. And you’re walking into a room where the outcome is already half-scripted.
Our clients don’t wait for RFPs. They want growth—real switching intent, before it becomes visible.
We help vendors uncover that intent.
And while we’re using Learning Management Systems (LMS) in Higher Education as a running example in this piece, the patterns apply across the board: CRMs, assessment platforms, analytics suites, curriculum tools. If it’s expensive, entrenched, and institution-wide, it’s not going to be bought on a whim. As we discussed last week, the familiarity moat is real. But it can be dislodged.
If you want to grow, here is the playbook no one teaches.
The Illusion of Visibility
Vendors LOVE visibility. They think visibility = opportunity. It doesn’t.
That panelist who name-dropped your platform at Educause? Not buying.
That RFI you responded to three months ago? Dead.
That high-traffic institution your SDRs have flagged three times this quarter? Locked in a three-year freeze with no outs.
Visibility in your CRM feels like momentum. It isn't, necessarily.
Here’s where most teams get it wrong:
“Activity ≠ Alignment”
Edtech sales orgs obsess over engagement metrics: clicks, opens, downloads.
But none of that maps cleanly to institutional decision cycles.
One campus downloaded your whitepaper. You assumed interest.
In reality, a junior staffer needed it for a slide deck.
Meanwhile, the academic tech committee next door just issued a mandate to audit every tool with a grading engine. That doesn’t show up in your dashboards.
If you're not plugged into the internal mandate, you're not in the deal.
“Big ≠ Buy”
Sales teams chase the marquee logos.
But the biggest names are often the least flexible: bound by statewide contracts, multi-year renewals, or decision committees that freeze change mid-cycle.
Meanwhile, mid-tier institutions facing enrollment cliffs are actively rethinking platforms.
The buyers who are most ready to move are the least visible.
“Open RFPs Are Almost Always Too Late”
By the time you see an RFP, consensus has already formed.
Pilots have been run.
Backchannel conversations have taken place.
The faculty committee has narrowed the field.
A favorite has emerged.
The RFP is just theater. Compliance theater, procurement theater, politics theater.
If your outbound starts with a bid, you’re already walking into someone else’s ending.
THE QUIET ROAD TO SWITCHING
Switching doesn’t happen out loud. It unfolds in fragments: quiet, scattered, and internal. No one sends an alert saying “We’re unhappy with our LMS” (or other edtech product). But the signals are there. If you know where to look.
This section walks you through the actual progression. Not the one you see in the CRM, but the one happening inside the institution.
Stage 1: Faculty Workarounds and Internal Noise
The earliest signs of dissatisfaction don’t show up in contracts. They show up in workarounds.
Faculty start bypassing core tools.
They ditch the LMS quiz builder and use Google Forms.
They upload videos to YouTube instead of the native platform.
They complain in surveys (anonymously).
One faculty member described their situation like this:
“We took a marginally workable platform and switched to an absolute nightmare.”
That wasn’t a quote from after the switch. It was about the product they were stuck with.
This is the immune system flaring up.
The institution hasn’t announced anything.
But the body is rejecting the system.
Stage 2: Strategy Outpaces the Stack
The institution launches a new initiative:
- Analytics dashboards for retention
- Digital-first degree programs
- A “student experience” task force
But the current systems can’t stretch far enough.
The LMS can’t talk to the SIS.
The data exports are rubbish.
The interface feels stuck in 2011.
So the gaps start showing up in other places:
- A HECVAT checklist request.
- Procurement updating T&Cs to allow pilots.
- Strategic plans mentioning “modernized platforms.”
The product isn’t named. But it’s implicated.
Stage 3: The Infrastructure Starts Moving
This is where most vendors should pay attention, but don’t.
You see a renewal come through.
What you miss is that it’s only for one year.
The last three were all three-year deals.
You notice a new hire:
“Director of Academic Innovation”
You dismiss it as unrelated.
You don’t notice the opt-out clause added to the latest procurement doc.
You don’t see the piggyback clause that quietly opens the door to other vendors.
None of this hits your radar. But it’s already shifting the ground beneath you.
What to Actually Track:
- Short-term contract renewals
- Job postings with platform or innovation language
- Faculty senate minutes
- Strategic plan updates
- Learning technology governance committee agendas
Stage 4: Backchannel Activity Spikes
Now things get serious.
Instructional designers are attending your competitor’s webinars.
The academic success team is circulating articles about platform transitions.
The CIO hasn’t called you yet.
“By the time I see the RFP request, it’s already politically endorsed internally.”
— CIO, mid-sized public
You’re not losing the deal now.
It was lost a year ago. You weren’t listening when the room became quiet.
Stage 5: The RFP as Confirmation, Not Exploration
By the time the RFP drops:
- A pilot has already run.
- The budget is pre-approved.
- Faculty have reviewed options.
- Procurement is just making it official.
You think you’re competing for the contract.
But that’s not a lead. That’s a closing ceremony.
If you wait for the RFP, you're already 12 months behind. Our clients aren’t.
At Emerging Strategy, we specialize in surfacing those unseen dynamics:
- What pain points are real versus performative?
- Which factions are gaining power on campus?
- Where is dissatisfaction real, but fragmented?
- Where is your competitor vulnerable, but protected by inertia?
The win is in the details.
And we help you find them, before your competitors do.
WHY MOST VENDORS MISS ALL OF THIS
Everyone claims to be “data-driven.”
Everyone’s running outreach off engagement scores, scraping job boards, watching CRM activity light up in dashboards.
And yet? They keep chasing ghosts.
Here’s why: most vendors are watching the wrong screen.
❌ Blind Spot 1: Scraping ≠ Sensing
Yes, you can scrape job boards. You can grab titles, departments, dates.
But what does this actually tell you?
At one institution, a listing went up for a “Director of Academic Technology.”
Same title they’d had for years.
But buried in the posting:
- “Lead strategic cross-functional reviews of instructional platforms”
- “Evaluate new learning technologies across modalities”
- “Collaborate with procurement on vendor assessment frameworks”
The intent had changed. The politics had shifted. The clock had started.
Your scraper doesn’t flag that.
We catch it because we know where to look:
New strategic plan? Check.
One-year LMS renewal? Check.
Faculty survey mentions “difficulty grading assignments”? Check.
That’s not a job post. That’s the start of a switch.
❌ Blind Spot 2: CRM ≠ Reality
You’ve got a top-50 public engaging with your nurture stream.
Webinar attended. Whitepaper downloaded. Email opened five times.
Great.
Except…
- Their CIO just signed a three-year extension.
- They’re mid-SIS transition and on a hiring freeze.
- Their LMS is deeply embedded into course templates and faculty training modules.
We spoke to their Assistant Provost. Quote:
“It’s flattering to be courted, but our hands are tied until FY27.”
Meanwhile, a small regional campus no one’s paying attention to:
- Just hired a new VP of Online Learning
- Quietly amended their LMS procurement policy
- Three faculty have been circulating switching content internally
Your CRM doesn’t see that.
We can.
❌ Blind Spot 3: You’re Talking to the Wrong Roles
Most outreach is still aimed at CIOs and procurement.
But in our LMS-switching engagement data:
Over 60% of signal activity came from non-central actors.
Academic innovation staff.
Student success leaders.
Digital learning teams.
These are the people who raise red flags internally.
They write the first memos.
They run shadow pilots.
They frame the board discussion.
“By the time it hits procurement, we’ve already agreed on direction.”
— Director of Learning Experience, Midwestern public
You’re trying to sell to someone who’s no longer the decider.
❌ Blind Spot 4: You Don’t Know What You’re Missing
Every vendor has their dashboard.
What they lack is a decision radar.
They don’t see when the conversation has started because it started in the break room, not the inbox.
They miss:
- Faculty senate minutes questioning platform usability
- Committee rosters formed to “explore instructional continuity tools”
- Board-level updates that suggest platform modernization needs
These aren’t secrets. They’re public. But they require synthesis.
Your sales ops team isn’t set up to catch them.
Your marketing funnel is optimized for lead scoring, not for sensing institutional inflection points.
If you’re only looking at dashboards, you’re managing leads. We’re tracking institutional momentum.
HOW EMERGING STRATEGY DOES IT DIFFERENTLY
Let’s be honest: most GTM teams are flying with partial radar.
You know who talked to you.
We know who’s talking about switching (quietly, internally, politically).
Our approach surfaces those conversations before they’re public. Before the shortlist is set. Before the RFP ever drops.
Here’s how we do it:
✅ What We Track
1. Job Postings, with Context
We don’t scrape titles.
We interpret the role architecture.
Is the new hire reporting to instructional innovation or compliance?
Does the description call for “vendor evaluation”?
Is the timing aligned with a leadership transition?
If so, it’s not just headcount.
It’s capacity-building for change.
2. Article-Level Behavior — Not Just Clicks, but Signals
We track who reads product switching content, and how deeply.
Which institutions.
Which platforms they use.
Which roles engage and share, repeatedly.
A Dean of Digital Pedagogy forwarding an LMS comparison article to four colleagues?
That’s internal signaling.
3. Procurement Documents — Down to the Footnotes
We scan and decode:
- Auto-renewal clauses quietly amended
- Term length shifts (from 3 years to 1)
- Piggyback clauses suggesting flexibility
These are psychological tells. Signs that confidence in the incumbent is eroding.
4. Voice-of-Market Interviews That Surface What CRMs Can’t
We run targeted interviews with faculty, deans, instructional staff.
We ask:
“What would make this the right year to reconsider your current tools?”
Or:
“If you were to wave a wand and replace one system, which would go first?”
You won’t hear this on a webinar.
We hear it in quiet, candid moments — before the formal search begins.
🎯 What Our Clients Receive
Deal Radar
A map of institutions with early switching indicators.
Role Maps
Not just who signs. But who shapes. Who whispers. Who blocks. Who evangelizes.
Timing Models
Signals that surface months ahead of public procurement.
Because that’s when strategy starts to shift.
We’re not delivering more dashboards.
We’re delivering strategic clarity about which institutions are opening a door, and how to walk through it before your competitor does.
Want to see what your competitors can’t? Let’s talk.
THE MARKET MOVES QUIETLY. YOU DON’T HAVE TO.
Most switching journeys don’t start with a big announcement. They start with a sigh.
A workaround. A hallway conversation.
Somewhere, a mid-tier college just shortened their contract from three years to one.
Somewhere else, an assistant provost forwarded a product comparison deck to the CIO.
And across the country, dozens of instructional design teams are holding quiet frustrations they’ve stopped voicing out loud, because they think no one’s listening.
You can wait until those signals turn into public procurement.
Or you can move now, while the opportunity is still soft, still shapeable, still winnable.
Our clients don’t chase ghosts.
They act early, with intelligence.
They shape deals before competitors even see them.
Because switching intent isn’t a point.
It’s a progression.
We can show you where the story starts, before it’s too late to change the ending.
Emerging Strategy helps you detect and engage real switching momentum, before the RFP drops. Let’s talk.
